Polls released this week in the primary race for California Governor reflect the turmoil and confusion in the wake of the exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell following multiple sexual assault allegations.
The answer to the critical question of who benefits from the departure of Swalwell – whose name will still appear on the June 2 ballot – remains unclear.
And this is working to the advantage of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, according to his campaign.
On Tuesday, the mayor’s campaign released the results of a poll conducted April 8-12 that showed his support more than doubling among prospective voters – past Xavier Becerra’s. On Thursday, the independent Emerson College poll conducted April 14-15 showed Mahan with a slight increase in support, with Becerra’s support more than tripling.
Also on Tuesday, Mahan ran $3 million in advertising on digital platforms statewide and on San Francisco television stations.
The most recent poll was conducted by Emerson College and independently sponsored by Inside California Politics/Nexstar Media, sponsor of a statewide April 22 debate among the six highest-polling governor candidates. Mahan qualified for that debate.
Last week’s poll was conducted by Impact Research for the Mahan campaign. Each poll had similar margins for error of +/- 3 to 3.3%.
The Mahan campaign was quick to jump on its poll results, asserting that its late-arriving candidate largely unknown outside the Bay Area was gaining traction. “Mahan has moved within striking distance of [Katie] Porter and [Tom] Steyer,” the campaign declared.
Just one month ago, the same Emerson College survey ranked Swalwell ahead of all candidates, with 17% support. One week after he suspended his campaign and resigned from Congress, his supporters scattered.
Another revelation in the Mahan poll was the big drop in support for former frontrunner Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, whose controversial seizure of 2025 special election ballots was blocked by the California Supreme Court.
The top two vote getters in the June primary, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
Here are the polling numbers, with the Impact Research poll numbers for each candidate followed by the Emerson College numbers:
- Steve Hilton (Rep.) – 25%, 17%
- Tom Steyer (Dem.) – 16%, 14%
- Katie Porter (Dem.) – 14%, 10%
- Chad Bianco (Rep.) – 8%, 14%
- Matt Mahan (Dem.) – 8%, 5%
- Xavier Becerra (Dem.) – 7%, 10%
- Other – 5%, 7%
- Undecided – 9%, 23%
WIth mail voting set to begin in less than three weeks, Mahan’s campaign expressed confidence that his support will continue to grow, as others hold steady.
His poll results, however, show it’s a big hill to climb. To make the final two spots, Mahan would have to double his support again, either by grabbing all undecided voters or pulling from other candidates, or a combination of the two.
The mayor’s campaign believes that Porter and Steyer have less potential for growth. “Voters open to supporting a Democrat are already familiar with both Steyer (80% name ID) and Porter (84%),” the campaign said in its report on the poll results. “On the other hand, Mahan still has considerable room for introduction with just 37% of voters already familiar with him.”
“When voters hear biographical information about Mahan, including growing up living paycheck-to-paycheck and teaching middle school in a working-class neighborhood, Mahan jumps to first place among the Democratic candidates,” his campaign said the polling showed.
In the polling interviews last week after hearing his biography, the poll respondents favored Mahan over both Steyer and Porter by 5 points.
“Voters move toward him in even larger numbers after hearing positive messaging that incorporates biographical elements,” the campaign’s poll reported. “After messaging, Mahan is the clear leading Democrat with 20% of the vote, twice the vote share of Steyer or Porter.”
More polls in the next month likely will put these views to the test.
