Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra pulled away from the crowded field as the California governor’s race headed into a two-week home stretch, in a statewide poll released today.
Democrat Tom Steyer faded and candidates Chad Bianco, Katie Porter and Matt Mahan were left in the dust in what the California Democratic Party called its final tracking poll from the California VOTER Index. The 1,200-sample tracking survey was conducted May 14-16 – after the May 14 statewide television/social media debate – by Evitarus Research, the only Black-and Latina-led full-service public opinion research firm in California.
Today’s topline survey results:
- Steve Hilton (R) – 22%
- Xavier Becerra (D) – 21%
- Tom Steyer (D) – 15%
- Chad Bianco (R) -10%
- Katie Porter (D) – 7%
- Matt Mahan (D) – 4%
- Antonio Villaraigosa (D) – 1%
- Tony Thurmond (D) – 1%
- Betty Yee (D) – <1% suspended campaign
- Eric Swalwell (D) – <1% withdrew from race
Support for Mahan – who raised and spent more than any other candidate besides billionaire Steyer’s self-funded campaign – in today’s poll results was cut in half from a week ago.
San Jose Inside reached out to the Mahan campaign, but the campaign had released no statement on the poll as of 11pm Tuesday.
Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks said 37% of likely voters said they had already voted. State officials expected that 90% of California voters – Democrats, Republicans and Independents – to vote by mail before that official June 2 primary election ballot count.
Hicks called today’s poll “ the fifth and final edition” of his party’s independent polling effort that began two months ago in an effort to narrow the field and avoid a GOP 1-2 finish.
That prospect now seems unlikely, with Republican Hilton and Democrats Becerra and Steyer separating from the pack, and the percent of undecided voters dropping below 18%.
Hicks also said today’s results show that Trump-backed Hilton now has more than double the support for fellow Republican Bianco. Hilton, said Hicks, has consolidated 57% of the Republican vote – a 9-point gain from the May 4 California Index.
Hick also said that Becerra maintains the broadest coalition of any candidate for governor with 35% of Democrats – a 6-point increase from May 4 – and 19% of Independents. Democrat voters in California match the number of Republicans and Independents combined.
He added a note of caution: “With two weeks to go, the race is far from over – especially given the many twists and turns we’ve already seen. …Yet, we are clearly in a different place than we were two months ago. Some candidates are surging. Others are falling behind. And it is clear from our survey results that voters are paying attention to both.”
Becerra on Tuesday told reporters at a Los Angeles campaign event that he believes he has climbed in the polls because voters are now paying attention to the race.
“They’re really looking closely at who’s out there, and I think I’ve been one of the beneficiaries of folks looking for a place that they can feel comfortable, where they can trust,” said the former congressman and state attorney general. “I think more and more as people look at the candidates, they’re going to start to crystallize behind somebody who won’t need training wheels, as I say, when they get into the governor’s office and can hit the ground running, day one.”
Hilton said the numbers reflect the momentum and energy he has seen campaigning around the state as well as his campaign’s internal polling.
“I’m obviously happy to see I’m at the top,” Hilton told the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday.
