The final Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey of the California governor’s race finds Democrat Xavier Becerra’s pulling away from the once-crowded field as the campaign headed into the final weekend.
The independent poll of likely voters showed that Becerra, who was among the also-rans at 4% in early April, is now clearly leading the race for governor at 28%, followed by Democrat Tom Steyer at 22% and Republican Steve Hilton at 21%.
The results announced beginning Tuesday, Primary Election Day, could determine whether November General Election voters will choose between a Republican and a Democrat or between two Democrats.
Just a few weeks ago, Democrats had feared the choice would be between two Republicans, as Democrats battled for dominance in the wake of the departure of frontrunner Eric Swalwell in a sexual harassment scandal.
The “other” Republican, Chad Bianco, held steady in the Emerson poll in the middle of the pack, at 12%, while support for Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan collapsed by up to 50% from the last poll, to just 5% apiece.
The poll results show just 4% are undecided. Two weeks earlier, the poll showed 12% undecided.
While voters say they have made up their minds, just over 15% of the state’s record 23.2 million registered voters had sent in mail ballots by Saturday. Election officials expect 90% of total votes in the primary will be votes by mail.
When undecided voters were asked by the Emerson pollsters to decide who they would support, Becerra’s support remained at 28%, and Hilton and Steyer both received 23%.
“Xavier Becerra maintains frontrunner status in the final Emerson poll ahead of Tuesday’s primary, while Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton both have paths to advance to the November general election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit. Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
Since the most recent Emerson poll in mid-May, Becerra’s support increased by nine percentage points, Steyer’s by five, Hilton’s by four, and Bianco’s by one. Support for Democrats Katie Porter and Matt Mahan dropped by five and three points, respectively.
“Becerra has built support among key Democratic constituencies, at 44% among Democrats, 36% among Hispanics, and 36% among women, while Hilton has consolidated a majority of the Republican vote with 59%, though 29% support Bianco,” Kimball added. “Steyer is the favorite among voters under 30 at 36%, and remains competitive among white voters at 25%.”
About 3 in 4 (74%) of voters say they will definitely support the candidate they chose, while 26% say there is still a chance they could change their mind come Election Day and support a different candidate, Kimball reported.
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted May 27-28, with a margin of error of +/- 3%.
