For weeks, leaders of California’s Democratic Party have worried aloud about having so many Democrats running for governor that two Republicans could finish first and second in the state’s June 2 primary election, thus guaranteeing election of a GOP governor in November.
Late Sunday, Democratic worrywarts got some relief from an unexpected source — President Donald Trump.
Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News TV commentator, over Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, reducing the likelihood of a 1-2 GOP outcome, which would be the only way a Republican governor could be elected in deeply blue California.
“I have known and respected Steve Hilton, who is running for Governor of California, for many years,” Trump said in a posting on his Truth Social. “He is a truly fine man, one who has watched as this once great State has gone to Hell. Gavin Newscum and the Democrats have done an absolutely horrendous job. People are fleeing, crime is increasing, and Taxes are the highest of any State in the Country, maybe the World. Steve can turn it around, before it is too late, and, as President, I will help him to do so!”
Hilton, of course, was pleased, reciting his own litany of woes about California in a statement and concluding, “I’m grateful for the president’s support. Together, we can turn things around and make California truly golden again.”
It is the latest chapter in what was already the weirdest campaign for governor in recent history. Who would have thought that Donald Trump would, perhaps unwittingly, help Democrats dodge the embarrassment of allowing a Republican to win the governorship?
The Democrats’ own recent poll found Hilton and Bianco virtually tied, with percentage voter support in the mid-teens, while the eight serious Democratic candidates were no higher than 10% each. Given the size of field — there will be 61 names on the primary ballot — it was possible, although still not probable, that the two GOP candidates could each garner about 20% of the June 2 vote to advance to November under California’s top-two primary system.
[Note: The Democrats’ poll showed San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan still mired in the 3% range.]
Trump’s intervention makes that scenario less likely because it will tend to consolidate Republican voters behind Hilton. But while it could help Hilton finish either first or second, without Bianco he would be an almost certain loser in November to whichever Democrat made the ballot.
Trump may have also relieved pressure on Democrats to surreptitiously help one of the Republicans to leap ahead, so as to avoid a 1-2 GOP outcome. That strategy is what Democrat Adam Schiff used in a U.S. Senate race two years ago, indirectly helping Republican Steve Garvey finish second in the primary, thereby avoiding a general election duel with Democrat Katie Porter.
“Trump’s endorsement of Steve Hilton likely frees up tens of millions of dollars for Democratic groups who would have otherwise had to spend heavily to elevate one of the two leading GOP gubernatorial candidates to avoid a Democratic lockout,” Rob Pyers, of the California Target Book, posted on X.
All of this maneuvering, however, does not absolutely close the door on a 1-2 GOP outcome in June. In a campaign as odd as this one, there are no sure things. Moreover, to fully exploit Trump’s gift, Democrats must also sort out which of their candidates will carry the party’s flag into a November victory.
At the moment, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, who’s running for governor after losing the 2024 Senate race, appears to be tied with billionaire Tom Steyer and Congressman Eric Swalwell in the upper tier of the eight serious Democratic candidates.
However, the clock is ticking. Mail voting begins in about four weeks, and unless someone makes a breakthrough soon, it’s still possible that Republicans could have a 1-2 finish, notwithstanding Trump’s tactically foolish intervention.
Dan Walters comments on politics for CalMatters.
