The latest poll results in the California governor’s race showed San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan stuck in sixth place, far behind the leaders five weeks after he announced his longshot candidacy.
The Emerson College poll conducted March 7-9 – the first since the Iran War – shows significant movement away from the top Republicans and towards two Democratic candidates for California governor. The June 4 top-two open primary is less than three months away.
Democratic Party leaders must have breathed a little easier after Wednesday’s release of the latest statewide poll that showed two Democrats, Rep. Eric Swalwell and Tom Steyer, gaining ground at the expense of Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco.
The poll numbers also showed declining support or no gains for the other Democrats, including Mahan.
An effort last week – fueled by fears of a November election between two Republicans – to convince low-polling Democrats to drop out of the race before the March 6 filing deadline only pared the race’s top 10 list by one candidate, former state Assembly majority leader Ian Calderon, who endorsed Swalwell. Calderon had been polling in the 1-2% range.
Mahan, who stunned the field early last month by raising $7 million and captured national attention with a PAC-funded Super Bowl ad, remained optimistic, as the numbers of undecided voters returned to 25%.
Mahan told media last week that there was plenty of time for candidates to make a mark, noting “people are just starting to tune in.”
In the Emerson poll released Wednesday, Swalwell’s support increased among Democratic voters in the past month from 23% to 27%, while Steyer’s support also increased,from 12% to 16%.
The poll showed Swalwell with 17%, Hilton with 13%, Steyer and Bianco with11%, Katie Porter with 8%, Mahan, Anthony Villaraigosa and Xavier Becerra at 3%, Betty Yee at 2% and Tony Thurmond at 1%.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “A plurality of the independent electorate is undecided (39%), while 12% [of independents] support Swalwell and Hilton respectively, and Republicans are split between Hilton (38%) and Bianco (34%).”
Gov. Gavin Newsom is watching from the sidelines in this primary, but state and national politics are likely to be big factors in both the primary and general election for governor.
In the Emerson poll, Newsom holds a 45% job approval rating among California likely voters, up one point from February, while 40% disapprove of the job he is doing. President Donald Trump holds a 28% job approval rating among likely California voters, while 64% disapprove of the job he is doing in office. Both top Republican candidates for governor, Hilton and Bianco, are strong Trump supporters.
Mahan, meanwhile, has stood out among Democrats as the most critical of Newsom, especially on housing, which the poll identified as a top concern of California voters.
In the June 4 open primary, voters can select a candidate of either party, and the top two vote-getters move on to November.
Statewide, 48% of voters think California is headed in the right direction, while 52% think the state is on the wrong track
In the Emerson poll, the top issue for California voters continues to be the economy (37%), followed by housing affordability (22%), threats to democracy (11%), immigration (8%), and healthcare (7%).
A majority of California voters (53%) think the issue of homelessness is getting worse, 33% think it is staying the same, and 15% think it is getting better.
A majority of voters, 64%, want the next Governor of California to stand up to the Trump administration, while 36% would rather they work with the Trump administration.
Among voters who want the next Governor to work with the Trump administration, 36% support Hilton for Governor, 31% Bianco, and 19% are undecided.
Among voters who want the next Governor to stand up to the Trump administration, 25% support Swalwell for Governor, 15% Steyer, 12% Porter, and 28% are undecided.
The Emerson College California survey was conducted March 7-9, 2026. The sample of 1,000 likely California likely voters has a margin of error +/- 3 percentage points. The data set was weighted by gender, age and education based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. The survey is sponsored by Nexstar Media.
