Nate Silver

Political Predictions a Tricky Game

As Nate Silver proved in his statistical models, political predictions are often less accurate than a flip of the coin. (Image by Daniel Dale, via Flickr)

Predicting the future of politics is a tricky proposition, as Nate Silver pointed out in his NY Times blog and book during the election season. But taking a closer look at local issues, there are a few predictions you can, or can’t, count on in the future.

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Liar Polls and the People Who Love Them

Many current public polling organizations have mastered the art of the liar poll. These polls are designed to reflect a result, so that voters are deceived into believing that certain candidates or issues are winning, when clearly they are not.

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